Market Turmoil: Tariffs and Government Efficiency

Market turbulence has everyone on edge as tariffs and the new Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE) dominate headlines. While March inflation numbers showed modest improvement at 2.8% versus the expected 2.9%, the shifting landscape of potential tariffs—ranging from 10% to 50%—creates planning challenges for both businesses and consumers.

Those needing a new vehicle might want to shop current inventory, as even with deferred auto tariffs, the deeply intertwined supply chains connecting Mexico, Canada, and the US mean price uncertainty looms. Modern manufacturing reality means that "Made in USA" products often contain globally sourced components, and even companies wanting to reshore operations face significant implementation timelines measured in years, not months.

Despite these uncertainties, knee-jerk portfolio changes rarely serve investors well. The surprising outperformance of international developed markets over US stocks this year—contrary to what tariff fears might suggest—highlights the enduring value of global diversification. A well-constructed portfolio with exposure to US stocks (small and large), international markets, and safer assets like money markets or fixed income provides resilience against policy surprises.

DOGE's efficiency mission sounds appealing, but concerns grow about broad implementation without careful consideration of unintended consequences, particularly on essential services for vulnerable populations. Civic engagement through contacting representatives can help shape more thoughtful approaches to government reform.

Throughout these divisive times, remember that most Americans (over 80%) occupy the middle ground politically. By approaching differences with kindness and genuine curiosity rather than judgment, we maintain the connections that help us navigate uncertainty together. The volatility we're experiencing isn't permanent.

Envision Financial Planning. 5100 Poplar Avenue, Suite 2428, Memphis, TN 38137. (901) 422-7526. This communication is strictly intended for individuals residing in the United States. Advisory Services offered through Envision Financial Planning, a Registered Investment Adviser.

Chapters

• 0:00 Episode Introduction and Market Drivers
• 0:50 Inflation Updates and Tariff Uncertainty
• 1:55 Supply Chain Complexities
• 3:42 Portfolio Strategy During Uncertainty
• 4:48 Department of Governmental Efficiency Concerns
• 6:44 Finding Middle Ground in Divided Times

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:00

Hi, I'm Stacey Hyden. I'm here with another episode of Better Financial Health in 15 Minutes or Less, and today I would like to kind of talk about some stuff that's been in the headlines, particularly around tariffs and the Department of Governmental Efficiency, or DOGE. I think those two things have been the drivers behind a lot of the market turmoil over the last couple of weeks, because no one really knows what tariffs are, prices to consumers, which is a little concerning because prices are already high. The good news is today, that's March 12th, the inflation numbers came out slightly lower than expected. Now, by slight I mean slight 2.8% versus 2.9% on an annualized basis, but at least they are going in the right direction. But you can be forgiven for not knowing whether there's going to be 10% tariffs, 25% tariffs, 50% tariffs, because it does seem to be changing on a day-to-day basis, which can make it really hard to plan. But I think the key thing I would say is, if you have a need for a new car, might be not be a bad idea to go ahead and start shopping the ones that are already on the lots, because while there was a deferral of those tariffs on automobiles, one thing is certain the supply chain between, particularly, mexico, the US and Canada. It is very tightly wound. So even items that are quote unquote made in the USA have parts in them that are sourced from Mexico, other parts in South America, Canada or even across the world. And that's what really makes trying to figure out exactly what the impact these tariffs are going to have come to be. Also, some companies have their supply chain and they're arranging for their supply of inputs to their manufacturing process. They arranged to buy those a year ago, two years ago, and even if they wanted to bring that back on shore, which many companies did after COVID, they moved a lot more stuff here because we had all the trouble with stuff getting to the US and through customs and through the ports, through COVID. It still takes time to train people, build out those production lines, build out those production lines and get everything transferred. Even if they're going to just transfer from one plant to another, that still takes a lot of time, energy and coordination. So we just don't know. I think it is somewhat positive that a lot of the harsher tariffs have been kind of walked back. I think that they've been used as more of a negotiating tactic, but we're just going to have to stay tuned.

Speaker 1: 3:34

That being said, I don't think you should be making any major changes to your portfolio based on this. You very well could go one way and it turns out to be completely something else. So I think, as long as your portfolio is globally diversified meaning it has US stocks, both small and large, it has international stocks, it has some safer things, whether that be money market or fixed income I think you should just let it be because, for example, this year, international stocks developed international. They're up significantly more than US stocks. That has not been the case for quite some time and that's probably not what people would have expected if we were going to be charging these other countries and their domiciled companies higher tariffs, but in fact, that has been the case, and part of that, I think, is just because international markets have not done as well over the past several years as US markets. But it's something to keep an eye on and it's the reason for spreading out your investments.

Speaker 1: 4:48

The other is the Department of Governmental Efficiency, and while the idea of a more efficient government is hugely appealing to me, I'm a little concerned, like a lot of people are, that it's being done with a machete instead of a scalpel. My hope is that as they get further into this, they slow down and look at the impacts, because there are some things that have unintended consequences. That's always been my personal take with a lot of the things that government does is it sounds great on the surface, but when you start peeling back the layers and see that oh yes, this part of the Department of Education also impacts this with food and nutrition for underserved kids. Well, we have to be careful with that and make sure that, if we're cutting here, that those hungry kids are still going to get the food that they need to eat, because they are not the bad guys here. They are our future and we need to make sure they're there. So I don't know how all this is going to play out. I'm watching it, I'm reading the news, just like everybody else.

Speaker 1: 6:10

I think if you are inclined to reach out to your congressmen and senators, that's always a good thing, because I do think that they listen, because, rightly or wrongly, many of them are career politicians, and so what they want to do is get reelected, and so if you let your voice be known, oftentimes the squeaky wheel does get the grease, and I think that we can accomplish a lot through that. But remember, in your personal relationships, try to resist the urge to paint someone whose views are different than yours is all bad or say that you can't have a relationship with them, because that's how we continue to get divided. We need to have these conversations. We need to listen to our friends, our co-workers, hear their opinions, maybe learn something and then go from there, because my strongest belief is that 80 plus percent of Americans are somewhere in the middle. You may tilt a little right, you may tilt a little left, but at the end of the day, you're really more worried about taking care of your immediate needs and your family and your close friends and your community. And so I think we need to remember, as we go into the Lenten season, that really to remember how we treat others and to be kind because we don't know where people are coming from or how they arrived at their views and have those conversations with and go into them with an expectation that they're doing the best they can with what they have and hopefully they'll extend you the same grace and we'll all get through this craziness together.

Speaker 1: 8:08

Thanks for tuning in. This has been another episode of Better Financial Health in 15 Minutes or Less.